Pool Outlook for Montreal

There were a lot of question marks about the Canadiens going into the 2011 season, most of which surrounded the goaltending decisions of management, letting Jaroslav Halak go in a deal to St. Louis and choosing Carey Price as their goaltender going forward.  This proved to be the right move and the Canadiens management came away like geniuses, having one of the league's best netminders, finishing 2nd in the Northeast Division and then giving the newly crowned Eastern Conference champions a run for their money in the opening round of the playoffs.  I would say that is a pretty good year and they have some room for improvement to address.

Just how good was Carey Price in the 2011 season?  Well, he finished 6th in overall pool scoring with 38 wins, 8 shutouts and 2 assists, giving him 94 points in the year.  He was the second best goalie in the entire league, behind Henrik Lundqvist, for pool points and likely an excellent bargain in most pool drafts, as the question mark that hung above his head loomed large, decreasing his pool value potential.

The forwards for the Habs were less than sparkling in the goal scoring department, as no one really stepped up to the forefront to deliver on a regular basis.  There was a lot of scoring by committee, as you might be able to tell from some of the numbers I am about to reel off.  Tomas Plekanec led all forwards with 57 points in 77 games, good enough for 80th overall in pool scoring.  Mike Cammalleri (47 points in 67 games), Brian Gionta (46 points in 82 games), Andrei Kostitsyn (45 points in 81 games) and Scott Gomez (38 points in 80 games), all were somewhat disappointing, especially for poolies that had faith in these players.

The defense had its fair share of woes as well, but I think most of those were in the health department more than any other real concern.  They did, however, do something about it, acquiring James Wisniewski from the Islanders, who provided a shot in the arm of the team's power play, finishing up the season with 51 points in 75 games, ranking 5th among all defensemen in scoring.  That is very impressive.  P.K. Subban finished his first full season with the club, 38 points in 77 games for the rookie was also quite good, while Roman Hamrlik had 34 points in 79 games this season.  No Andrei Markov or Jaroslav Spacek on this list may have made you look twice.

Only one goalie was needed to play behind Price in 2011 and it was Alex Auld that got the call... rarely.  Auld only had 748 minutes on the ice, which works out to be about 12 games, winning 6 and adding an assist for 13 points on the year, finishing 59th among all goalies in the league in pool points.  When your minutes are limited, so is your pool value.

2012 Pool Outlook
Much like the outlook from last year, it's another small bunch of players for the Montreal Canadiens leading into the Summer.  Price checks in as the biggest player of the bunch and he isn't skating around making good use of it, rather he fills up the crease fairly well with it.  With the Canadiens doing well in the standings in 2011, I don't see any reason as to why they would buck this trend of smaller, faster players, trying to outpace their opponents night after night.  If they can find someone who would drive the opposition net more often in the same mould, they might really do some damage.

Forwards	Defense	Goalies
Tomas Plekanec	P.K. Subban	Carey Price
Mike Cammalleri	Jaroslav Spacek
Brian Gionta
Scott Gomez
Lars Eller
Travis Moen

Unrestricted free agency has really cleaned off the shelves in Montreal, allowing management to nearly start fresh with a core group of players.  Right now, I have the Canadiens with six forwards, two defensemen and a goalie, plus a buyout, in with a projected cap hit of $34.1 million.  That should leave around $28 million, with the new increases in salary cap measures, to fill in 14 players for a 23-man roster.  That should work out quite nicely for the team this Summer.

The unrestricted free agent crop is fairly deep, especially on the point, which may or may not cause a complete refresh of the team's blueline this year.  James Wisniewski, Roman Hamrlik, Hal Gill, Brent Sopel, Paul Mara and Andrei Markov are all set to be on the open market, barring a signing before July 1st.  Mathieu Darche, Jeff Halpern and Alex Auld are also set to become free agents in July as well.

The restricted free agents won't be a picnic either, seeing Andrei Kostitsyn, Benoit Pouliot, Max Pacioretty, David Desharnais, Yannick Weber, Alex Picard, Tom Pyatt, Josh Gorges and Ryan White all have their contracts end on July 1st as well.  That's a lot of decisions and negotiations to come in Montreal this Summer.

Up front, I would wager a guess that we'll see some offensive upside from Louis Leblanc in the 2012 season, same kind of frame as the rest of the team, but adds some youthful enthusiasm.  The team might get some good bottom six minutes out of newly-signed Joonas Nattinen, who is being hailed as a solid two-way forward with a knack for face-offs.  On defense, I think there is a shot that the Canadiens will sign their 1st round pick from last Summer, Jarred Tinordi, who would provide some much needed size in front of Price, likely at a cheaper rate than one or two of the free agent defensemen on the list.

I may have suggested that if there was a French goaltender in the top rankings for this Summer's draft, that they would likely go out and snap him up in the 1st round, 17th overall.  There isn't, so I would look for the Canadiens to maybe look to bulk up again on defense, much like Tinordi last Summer.  The forwards can be as small and speedy as they like, but I think the Canadiens may be realizing that size on the back end, along with a powerful shot that comes with it, is definitely an asset worth collecting.

What I said last year at this time... "For 2011, I will be preaching hesitation with the Canadiens. I am a fan of Mike Cammalleri's, but the Habs will have to make him a happy camper with some healthy help, because I get the feeling that they will remain as injury-plagued players, with no enforcers to help police their line-up from goons in the Eastern Conference. They will likely assume some wins in straight up skill match-ups, since Cammalleri, Gionta and Gomez will still be about, not to mention skill from the blueline, but unless they pick up some more grit (besides some of the pests on the team), they will be run over quite frequently. Look for the Canadiens to be bargains more than cornerstones of your fantasy team, but telling Habs fans that is a tall order."

Hesitation, especially with the forwards, was well warranted in the 2011 season, as they were not at all spectacular.  Of course, Carey Price had an amazing year with the Canadiens and he could have been considered a cornerstone, depending on your confidence in him back in September, but he was more likely one of the biggest bargains in the hockey pools from coast to coast.  I didn't talk much about how the Habs would finish in 2011, but I think the tone in my prediction suggested that it may not be a great year for them, to which I would say was pretty much incorrect.  Nevertheless, quite a bit of that paragraph was right, the team just had one amazing run by the goalie they decided to keep, rather than trade away.

Things I will assume for the 2012 season: 1) Carey Price won't have quite as good of a year in 2012, likely a lot of teams had a good look at him in the Bruins series and made some notes; 2) P.K. Subban is another year older and another year wiser, which actually bodes well for the team and the decision of where to put him in the depth chart, affecting the decisions of who to re-sign for the blueline; 3) unless the team gets a smidgen bigger in their top six, the offense will stay about the same in 2012.  That all being said, the Habs will be quick, Price will get plenty of wins, but they should find themselves back in the bottom half of the East playoff race again, possibly dropping a few points from the 2011 season.