Pool Outlook for Colorado

There is a lot to be said about expectations in the NHL.  A lot of times, they can get the best of a lot of teams and a lot of situations.  Take the Colorado Avalanche, for example, they were not supposed to do so well in the 2010 season, but came out with all guns a blazin' and they were almost unstoppable for three-quarters of the season.  Youth and a tired goalie caught up to them, but all of a sudden there were some pretty high expectations for the 2011 season.  Sadly, it just didn't work out for them and it almost looked like the team, as a whole, crumbled under the weight of the act they were following.  This led to a 29th overall finish in the NHL and they have the 2nd overall pick in this year's draft.

After showing some real flashes in the 2010 season, Matt Duchene has already started to make the Avalanche his team.  In only his sophomore season, Duchene took over the team scoring lead with 67 points (27 goals and 40 assists) in 80 games, benefiting from a fairly healthy season, which is hard to say for the rest of his teammates.  Still though, despite some constant changes to the line-up, he was a dangerous player to play against every night and he has moved into the top 50 in pool scoring already.  That sort of growth could project him into a 1st round pick in next season's pool draft.

As I had mentioned earlier, the Avalanche forwards did have a hard time staying healthy for the better part of the season, with a player missing here, a couple there and so on.  Paul Stastny managed to get in 74 games, picking up 57 points, for 2nd on the team in scoring, which was well down on his regular pace.  Milan Hejduk wasn't too far behind, 56 points in 71 games, David Jones popped onto the scene with 45 points in 77 games, Tomas Fleischmann was a great add to the Avs in the mid-season before his blood clot problem (31 points in 45 games between Washington and Colorado) and Ryan O'Reilly blossomed a bit more with 26 points in 74 games.

A blockbuster trade at the deadline is the reason why you don't see Chris Stewart's name on this list, as he was dealt to St. Louis in probably the biggest deal of the year.  His offense was down in Colorado before leaving any way.

On defense, John-Michael Liles was the wire-to-wire leader in blueline scoring for the Avalanche, finishing the year with 46 points in 76 games and looked really good for most of the season.  Newly-acquired Erik Johnson finished with 29 points in 77 games between St. Louis and Colorado, while Ryan Wilson rounded out the top three defensemen with 16 points in 67 games.  They may not be the most dominant three on the board, but it is something to build upon for the coming years.

In goal, the landscape also changed in the mid-season, as the Avalanche dealt Craig Anderson to Ottawa for Brian Elliot, who did finish atop the Avalanche goaltending situation with 36 points between the two cities.  Elliot was followed closely by his 1b (or back-up), Peter Budaj, who finished the year with 33 points.  The Avalanche goaltending situation in the 2011 season was not very good and didn't carry much of the weight through the year, especially in the tough times.

2012 Pool Outlook
With the signing of Milan Hejduk recently, the team table does look a little bit better than it could have been, but it still doesn't look all that great.  Goaltending has to be the first concern of the Avalanche, as they are still likely going to be waiting on some of their prospects, and their defense beyond Liles and Johnson is also very questionable, especially the health of Quincey.  It looks like the Avalanche are building from the front backwards, which is really going against the grain in the NHL today.

Forwards	Defense	Goalies
Matt Duchene	John-Michael Liles
Paul Stastny	Erik Johnson
Milan Hejduk	Jonas Holos
Ryan O'Reilly	Kyle Quincey
Daniel Winnik
Brandon Yip
Jay McClement
Cody McLeod
Peter Mueller

The Avalanche have about 25 players signed on for the 2012 season, but by my estimation, there are only 13 of them (as seen above) that are really destined to be in the NHL next season, with a few of the other 12 either on the cusp or likely in the minors to start the year.  For cap purposes, we'll be looking at the nine forwards and four defensemen, plus one buyout still on the books for another year, the Avalanche are looking at a projected annual number of $31.5 million today.  The 2011 cap floor was $43.4 million and that will likely go up, so there is some room to move for the Avalanche next season and plenty of roster spots to use up.

The top free agent to look at this Summer will likely be David Jones, who had a pretty good year for the Avalanche.  He leads the RFAs into the Summer, along with Brian Elliot, Kevin Porter, Ryan O'Byrne and Matt Hunwick.  I don't know how many of these players the Avalanche fans may want back, but they'll have to fill roster spots somehow.

Peter Budaj, Tomas Fleischmann and Greg Mauldin lead the small crop of keepable UFAs on the team and I would imagine all three of them get at least a meeting with the GM concerning their future with the team.  Fleischmann, of course, being the most likely candidate to return.

I get the feeling that the Avalanche will be giving some good looks to forward Joey Hishon, defenseman Tyson Barrie and defenseman Stefan Elliot in training camp this year, as all three have signed entry-level deals and could start developing with the big club sooner, rather than later.  With roster spots up for grabs, the Avalanche should be able to give some good looks to these players, hoping for the same kind of success they saw in O'Reilly and Wilson.

I don't think there is going to be any secret about what the Avalanche are going to do this year... the next best available player.  That being said, I think with the Oilers going after a defenseman with the top pick, I really think the Avalanche will be able to draft really well, picking either Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Gabriel Landeskog.  The move will be made to become more dynamic, which would fit really well with the likes of Duchene and Stastny.

What I said last year at this time... "Between now and a year from now, the success of the Avalanche depends heavily on the shrewdness of management to handle their flexible cap situation. If they can spend some money and acquire some complimenting talent to their youth, they should do just fine. Reliance on their youth and their system would likely be disastrous, but I can't see that happening straight away, especially with the comment of not rushing their youth through their system. Their drop-off at the end of the 2010 season only leads me to believe that they will be competitive in 2011 and not as dominant as they were to start this past season. Stastny will be a good pick again, Anderson will drop a little, Duchene may suffer a bit, but not much and their defense may still be their Achilles heel."

Did the Avalanche spend any money last year?  Not really.  Was relying on their youthful system disastrous?  In part, yes.  Of course, the unpredictability of injuries was also a big factor in their tough season, but not buying into the free agent market certainly stifled any possible gains in the 2011 year.  Stastny wasn't as good of a pick as last year, Duchene actually went up and Liles was their only defenseman of value for the better part of the season.  I think I did pretty well in my educated guess for the Avs.

The 2012 season will be about what they may have learned in the 2011 season and their Summer will reflect on that in a big way.  If the Oilers don't pick Larsson 1st overall, I expect the Avalanche to pick him 2nd, which does solidify their back end a little, but maybe not right away.  Goaltending and defense are huge gaps to fill going into this Summer and the Avalanche are going into a lean free agency year with cap space and too many needs.  This could be another year where youth dominates the roster, but not quite on the ice.  I don't expect a great year in Colorado, rather a pretty good pick in the 2012 draft.