Pool Outlook for Atlanta

In all honesty, I had some pretty low expectations for the Atlanta Thrashers for the 2011 season and I think they did well enough to surpass those low expectations, but that wasn't a long set of expectations to surpass and a 25th overall finish in the regular season.  They did play some pretty good hockey during the season, even made things relatively interesting for some of the Southeast Division teams, but fell short of any real excitement as the season wound down to the playoffs.  Now with some lingering threats of moving the team to Winnipeg, the Thrashers outlook seems somewhat muddy.

When the Thrashers started collecting on the Blackhawks' fire sale, they were definitely in for a treat, especially with the acquisition of Andrew Ladd.  Ladd finished the year on top of the team's scoring list, picking up 29 goals and 30 assists in 81 games for the team, was named captain midway through the season and will likely look towards signing a long-term deal to become an important piece of this squad, be it in Atlanta or possibly Winnipeg.

If the remainder of the forward group was anything, it was flashy, but way too inconsistent for any poolie's taste.  There were plenty of up and down moments, but they couldn't string together too many good games in a row.  Bryan Little (48 points in 76 games), Blake Wheeler (44 points in 81 games, between Boston and Atlanta), Evander Kane (43 points in 73 games), Nik Antropov (41 poins in 76 games) and Anthony Stewart (39 points in 80 games) really made everyone felt good, but somehow, it wasn't enough.  That isn't to say it won't come, it just may take a little while longer.

If there is anything that this club doesn't have to worry about, it will be the talent on the blueline.  The Summer acquisition of Dustin Byfuglien (53 points in 81 games) lined up with Tobias Enstrom (51 points in 72 games) made for one dynamic duo, ranking as the top pair in the NHL this season.  Mix in Ron Hainsey (19 points in 82 games) and an underwhelming Zach Bogosian (17 points in 71 games), I think the Thrashers will be a force to be reckoned with in the years to come.

Goaltending was somewhat of a concern for the Thrashers in the 2011 season, as their number one guy, Ondrej Pavelec, wasn't terribly consistent, but neither was his back-up, Chris Mason.  Pavelec finished the year with 50 points, 26th among all goalies, and Mason had 28 points, 37th among goalies.  This Summer may be one where the team tries to shore up some of their goaltending concerns, possibly finding one they can hitch their trailer to with little concern.

2012 Pool Outlook
The Thrashers ownership situation will really put a lot of things on hold for the time being, like re-signing a number of key forwards to new deals, but as I had mentioned before, this team has a solid core on the blueline, which should keep them competitive in one way or another for years to come.  There is some talent up front and in goal, but once the money and location is sorted out, they could really have something to build on.

Forwards	Defense	Goalies
Bryan Little	Dustin Byfuglien	Ondrej Pavelec
Evander Kane	Tobias Enstrom	Chris Mason
Nikolai Antropov	Ron Hainsey
Alex Burmistrov	Johnny Oduya
Chris Thorburn	Mark Stuart
Jim Slater
Tim Stapleton

It's really no wonder that there is a potential buyer for the Thrashers these days, as they are a team that is as soft as puddy, ready to be moulded into something exciting for the future.  Currently, the Thrashers have 13 players signed on, some of them quite good, and they are coming in with an annual projected cap hit of $35.1 million. With nine players to sign to fill the roster, a number of key RFAs to sign, once the budget is laid out (preferably before July 1st), these Thrashers could have themselves a great team for the 2012 season.

Andrew Ladd, Blake Wheeler (pictured), Anthony Stewart, Rob Schremp, Zach Bogosian and Ben Maxwell all headline the current crop of RFAs that the Thrashers will deal with in the Summer, some of which poised for some very good deals.  I would imagine that even three or four of these guys will be able to lift the Thrashers above the cap floor, once the money is available to management, but that will still likely be a month before anything happens.

Radek Dvorak, Eric Boulton, Freddie Meyer and Patrick Rissmiller are all on the chopping block as UFAs this Summer.  I'm getting the feeling that most of these guys will go to market, with the slightest of chances that they return to the Thrashers, more as depth players than anything else.

Nothing in the Thrashers system really jumps out at me to think that they are going to be in great shape with some possible new faces in their line-up.  Forward Patrice Cormier should bring some added grit to the team, while Paul Postma might be able to add some offense from the blueline, while Arturs Kulda may strengthen the blueline in both ends a bit.  These could be the three most likely to play for the Thrashers in 2012, but I don't think I would rush to pick up them up in the pool, unless they are unstoppable in training camp.

It sounds like the Thrashers will be looking for some top end scoring in the draft this year and from the 7th overall pick, they should get a good look at a number of players that will attempt to fill that role.  I would imagine they will get a shot at kids like Jonathan Huberdeau or Ryan Strome by their pick, so they could be in very good hands.  It's unfortunate that the Thrashers haven't had the best of luck with offensive forwards that they've picked high up in recent years.

What I said last year at this time... "For 2011, I can really see the Thrashers struggling as a whole. Ondrej Pavelec will likely get the bulk of the starts, Zach Bogosian will have a good 3rd season in the NHL, Niclas Bergfors will likely struggle in his sophomore year, Evander Kane will probably stay the course and the Thrashers will be hard-pressed to add a lot to this squad. I really don't believe that the Thrashers will be building to win right away in 2011, they'll just be looking to grow what they already have and gain some valuable experience for some of their younger NHL-ready players."

In review, Pavelec did get the bulk of the starts, Bogosian disappeared in his 3rd season with the club, Bergfors did struggle in Atlanta and Kane did continue to make some good strides.  The Thrashers did just give a lot of young players some great experience, adding in some quality players in the Blackhawks fire sale didn't hurt either.  Things likely went according to plan, without exceeding many expectations, but there is something to definitely build on after 2011.

The 2012 season will be full of uncertainty and it all begins in the Summer with where the team ends up on the North American map.  The uncertainty will have a trickle-down effect from owners/management down to the coaches/players and until that is all resolved, it could be a very shaky year.  If the team stays in Atlanta for another year, they may be able to sneak out a pretty good season, but if they do end up moving to Winnipeg, travel for the Southeast Division road games will be an absolute bitch and their road record will likely suffer.  I don't want to pin many hopes on the Thrashers, but if I am going to pick players for my hockey pool team, I would stick to the blueline for now.