Thursday, May 26, 2011

Pool Outlook for St. Louis

The St. Louis Blues had an underwhelming season in 2011, a season where they could not string too much together or get many breaks their way.  Injuries piled up on them early, signed replacements could not clear waivers and it was a no-brainer for management to sell off some prized assets at the trade deadline, not to mention make a blockbuster deal with Colorado, to cap it all off.  This season was far from meeting any expectations that management or their fans had going in.

The biggest fish that the Blues were able to land in the off-season was Jaroslav Halak and for the better part of the 2011 season, he really held his end of the bargain up.  Halak was able to pick up 27 wins and 7 shutouts for 69 points in the pools, ranking him 43rd in pool scoring and 16th among all goalies, but still wasn't able to lead his team into the playoffs.  You would think that the 16th best goalie might be in the playoffs, but that just wasn't going to be the case.  It does look like they have a goalie that they can lean on at least.

A lot of things went horribly wrong for the Blues up front in the year, but there were a few bright spots to speak of.  David Backes was one of those bright spots, leading all forwards on the team with 62 points in all 82 games, stepping up when the team needed him most.  Chris Stewart battled injury in both Colorado and St. Louis, he finished 2nd among all Blues forwards in scoring with 53 points in 62 games between the two teams.  Patrik Berglund (52 points in 81 games), Alex Steen (51 points in 72 games) and Andy McDonald (50 points in 58 games) rounded out the top forwards in 2011.

The blueline had a pretty big shake-up with the blockbuster trade between Colorado and St. Louis, which left the position just a little bit younger on top.  The defense was led by Alex Pietrangelo, who finished the year with 43 points in 79 games, while newly-acquired Kevin Shattenkirk also finished with 43 points in 72 games between the Avalanche and Blues.  Carlo Colaiacovo had a tough year, injury-wise, limiting his season to 65 games and 26 points in the process.  There is plenty of youth to be served here and should only improve going forward.

Halak had some help in the season, as Ty Conklin came in for most of the relief in 2011, winning 8 games and 2 by shutouts for 20 points, but he wasn't able to crack the point-per-60 minutes played mark, which is usually a pretty good indicator of a goalie's season in the pool.  Ben Bishop also saw some time in net for St. Louis, picking up 8 points and he might have the lead for the back-up job in 2012.

2012 Pool Outlook
The Blues management team is going to be awfully busy in this off-season, trying to fill a lot of gaps in the roster, from top to bottom... but mostly bottom.  The Team will mostly be dealing with a lot of restricted free agents, key ones at that, but the way the team is managing their budget, I don't think there should be much issue there, rather they should be in to compete in the 2012 season.

ForwardsDefenseGoalies
David BackesAlex PietrangeloJaroslav Halak
Chris StewartKevin Shattenkirk
Alex SteenCarlo Colaiacovo
Andy McDonaldBarret Jackman
David Perron

Salary CapIt's a very limited potential roster that the Blues are hanging onto going into the off-season, with only 10 regular players signed onto contracts at the moment.  The players that they do have signed are a very good base to build a team around and with a projected annual cap hit of only $31.6 million, the Blues are poised to make some real noise, especially if their RFAs are on board for more cap-friendly deals.

The class of restricted free agents begins with Patrik Berglund, who had a very good season in 2011, despite not seeing much consistency in the Blues line-up from night to night.  Matt D'Agostini, T.J. Oshie, Vladimir Sobotka, Roman Polak and Nikita Nikitin also headline the RFAs heading to market this Summer, which is a good group of supporting players.

Ty Conklin and Cam Janssen top the list of UFAs and are likely on their way out of town to make room for some youth in 2012.  If these two do sign back with the team, it would likely be for that veteran addition.

The Blues are nicely stocked with some keen talent coming up, which should compliment the already great talent they have at young ages in their line-up already.  I'm expecting to see defenseman Ian Cole making a push for a full-time job in 2012, as well as Jaden Schwartz, a forward coming out of the NCAA ranks.  Cole did get in some time with the big club in 2011, putting up a few points in 26 games.  Schwartz turned some heads at the World Juniors before injury and could factor in well.  The Blues will not sign Vladimir Tarasenko to a deal this Summer, as he has decided on another year in the KHL, which doesn't help the Blues in the short-term, but could see a major impact in the long-term... if he eventually comes over.

If the Blues were short on something in their system today, it would be their blueline.  The Blues have been looking more for some quality forwards in recent years, so a move back towards drafting some defensemen might be in their best interest.  Unfortunately for St. Louis, they won't be able to draft anything until the 2nd round, where they have three picks this year.  With those three picks, I almost expect to see at least two defensemen and a forward, but it could be hard for the Blues to pass over some players, especially if they fit the direction that the team is heading in.

What I said last year at this time... "For 2011, I think I will be a little more hesitant. There is definitely no reason to rush to St. Louis for any of your fantasy needs, but when the time comes and you find that there is a Blues player in the neighbourhood of points value that you're drafting at, then have at them. They might be better off as bargains/even money/slight losses, rather than big gambles. Saying that, they do have plenty of flexibility under the cap, Keith Tkachuk has retired, opening a spot up for another youngster, so keep an eye on them, they should be able to tempt you with something shiny and new. As a team, the Blues will be in that fight for the playoffs, not sure if they'd make it or not though."

Holding off on the Blues was a smart decision, if you were able to.  If you were drafting before a lot of the injuries started to happen, you were probably enticed by some quality names and talent on the board and maybe rushed to pick them for your own.  After the injuries, you would have been kicking yourself if you made those picks, because the team was struggling mightily and didn't make the playoffs at all.  It was a rough year for St. Louis, but if you stayed clear for as long as you could, I imagine you did well in your hockey pool.

For the 2012 season, the Blues have a lot of potential in both youth and cap flexibility, which should make many organizations rather jealous.  I like where the Blues are headed in the next few seasons and with some solid goaltending from Halak, they should be in great shape to play for a playoff spot as soon as the 2012 season, possibly even making a run for the 4th spot, seeing how tight the 2011 season finished off.  I'm expecting big things from Stewart, Oshie and Pietrangelo in 2012 and if they can keep their development going on the right track, I think they'll be a tough team to beat.

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