Pool Outlook for Toronto

The Age of Brian Burke is finally starting to come together in Toronto, because the Maple Leafs were not terrible in 2011.  Improvements have been made and the team is really starting to finally look like the hard working squad that their general manager had set out for them.  Sure, the Leafs had their issues in goal scoring and goaltending, but once there was some confidence in the back end, confidence really started to blossom up front and they created a pretty good mix of talent and work ethic.  Finishing over .500 in 2011 and 22nd overall looks like a pretty good upswing for the Leafs going into the Summer.

As it should almost be expected, Phil Kessel was the top point-getter in pool scoring for the Leafs in the 2011 season.  Kessel finished with 64 points (32 goals and 32 assists) in all 82 games for the Leafs, ranking him 52nd among all players in the NHL in pool scoring, 35th among all forwards.  He has steadily climbed the rankings in his two seasons with Toronto and now with a little bit more help coming through the system, he could be soon reaching some of his potential numbers, possibly even the 50-goal mark in the coming seasons.

The forwards beyond Kessel were fairly decent in the 2011 season, but they really were not going to carry the Leafs to as many wins as management may have hoped.  There were three more Leafs forwards in the top 100 in pool scoring, so at least they have some this to build upon.  Clarke MacArthur led the best of the rest with 62 points in 82 games, followed by Mikhail Grabovski (58 points in 81 games), Nikolai Kulemin (57 points in 82 games), Tyler Bozak (32 points in 82 games) and Joffrey Lupul (31 points in 54 games, between Anaheim and Toronto).  There isn't a name that really jumps out at you, but they were all getting ice-time with the top lines, so points were bound to follow.

With the Leafs finally trading away Tomas Kaberle at the trade deadline, there is now room for someone else to take the lead in the blueline department.  Next in line, Dion Phaneuf.  Phaneuf finished the season with 30 points in 66 games this year, who's season was shortened by a leg laceration.  He may have had a significant impact, if he was healthy all year.  Phaneuf was complimented by Luke Schenn (22 points in 82 games) and Carl Gunnarsson (20 points in 68 games).  I think it will be fair to assume that we'll see a new face or two on this list, the next time we see it next Spring.

The 2011 season could have been a complete and utter write-off, if it wasn't for the sudden emergence of James Reimer, who came out of the Leafs system when the team's two regular goalies were struggling and ended up winning 20 games, picking up 3 shutouts and an assist for 47 points.  Reimer finished 28th among all goalies in the league in pool points, despite starting halfway through the year.  He's earned himself a number one spot to lose in training camp.  J-S Giguere finished with 11 wins and 22 points, while Jonas Gustavsson suffered a long-term injury, finishing his season with 6 wins and 12 points.

2012 Pool Outlook
There are still some slight omissions from the list below, mostly because of games played in the 2011 season, but I do believe we'll see Joe Colborne rock his way onto this list quite early, since he did have a great stint with the Marlies after the deadline deal. With that being said, there is some scoring in this line-up and there are plenty of jobs to be had at the moment, not to mention a lot of free agents to sign. Lots to happen in Toronto this Summer, but it looks to be a lot more internal than anything else.

Forwards	Defense	Goalies
Phil Kessel	Dion Phaneuf	Jonas Gustavsson
Mikhail Grabovski	Mike Komisarek
Nikolai Kulemin	Brett Lebda
Joffrey Lupul	Keith Aulie
Colby Armstrong
Nazem Kadri
Mike Brown
Colton Orr

At the moment, the Leafs have about half their potential line-up already signed on to deals for the 2012 season, which should make things a lot easier for management to make some key decisions.  Right now, I have 13 potential players ready for next season on my list, plus one buyout on the books, coming in at an annual projection of $36.9 million.  That would leave only 10 players left to be signed for a full 23-man roster and plenty of room to fit them all in.  The Leafs may look to push the cap this year, but now they can spread out the wealth a little bit more, with certain free agents out of the way.

Speaking of free agents, the biggest free agent coming off the books, likely for good, will be J-S Giguere, who had a cap hit of $6 million in the 2011 season.  This should make plenty of room for another signing or three.  Tim Brent, Darryl Boyce and Fredrik Sjostrom are also going to market this Summer, each with a slight possibility of coming back.

I don't think it would be unfair to suggest that most of that Giguere cap space will be going to some much appreciated restricted free agents.  Clarke MacArthur, James Reimer, Tyler Bozak, Luke Schenn and Carl Gunnarsson are all up for new deals as RFAs and each will be priorities, in their own way, for new deals.

The future is really starting to look bright for the Leafs, as they have been stocking up on quality talent and it looks like they could be competitive sooner rather than later with a lot of this young talent.  Look for full-time minutes from Joe Colborne, Nazem Kadri and Keith Aulie in 2012, as all three really showed some great character by the end of the 2011 season.  Colborne was acquired from Boston in the Tomas Kaberle deal and he appears to be the real deal, possibly the key to a serious offense in Toronto.

Now, the Leafs will finally be rid of the aftershocks of the Phil Kessel trade after this Summer's draft, as Boston will use the last 1st round pick they have from this deal, but on the flip side, Burke did acquire a pair of 1st round picks, one from Philadelphia and Boston's own pick this year, both of which are later in the draft, but at least they are 1st rounders.  I'm totally expecting the Leafs to draft big defensemen with these picks, trying to stock up on size for in front of James Reimer.

What I said last year at this time... "As for 2011... I'm not going to expect any miracles, but if the young Maple Leafs can really buy into a hard-working system, they could be a little more competitive next season. It's not a lot to ask to work hard, but whether or not that will always translate into more scoring is a pretty big question. The defense and goaltending will have a training camp and pre-season to really work things and concerns out, but the game of hockey desperately needs some offense to compliment the defense. This Summer will be very telling to how the Leafs will look come September, hopefully they can address their issue of getting help for Phil Kessel, which will sort a lot of issues out."

I think 2011 did show that the Leafs could work a little harder, but their development didn't pan out as soon as I thought it might, as the team continued to evolve throughout the season, at every position.  With the Leafs still rebuilding their image, Burke was very continuous in his efforts to do so, even when the team was still playing in the regular season, while most teams were very cautious in making many major moves to change the atmosphere of the club.  This sort of thing is hard to prognosticate months in advance, but at least it shows promise to their large fan base.

I'm not afraid to say it.  The Leafs will push for a playoff spot in 2012, if all the major pieces remain healthy.  The major pieces include Phil Kessel, who will likely close in on 40 goals, James Reimer, who will likely be in the 30-win range with help, Luke Schenn and Keith Aulie will blossom even further on the blueline, while Nazem Kadri, Joe Colborne and possibly one more will all find regular roles on the squad.  If the Leafs are indeed in the running for Brad Richards and do happen to snag him, that would seriously change the face of the Northeast Division... in a big hurry.