Pool Outlook for Ottawa

The Ottawa Senators did not have a good year in 2011, period.  The season had gotten to the point where the term rebuild is now very prominent in the front windows of Scotiabank Place and the team will be looking towards the future with a brand new plan in place.  Thankfully for the Sens, there was some quality work done before the end of the season to help lock up some pieces going forward, but they all have a certain amount of question marks attached to them as well.  I would try to forget the 2011 season right away, but I have to go over who did what in the season first.

Finishing at the top of the Senators scoring race this season was Jason Spezza, finishing the year with 57 points (21 goals and 36 assists) in 62 games, as health concerns through the year really hit home for both himself a most of his teammates.  Spezza finished 83rd in pool scoring this year, remarkably, up one position from his 2010 spot.  His scoring pace was good enough to suggest that he is still playing some good hockey when he's healthy, but he's going to find himself on the injury prone list before too long.

Only one forward that finished the season with the Senators ended up playing all 82 games and he was second on the team in forward scoring, Nick Foligno, leading the best of the rest.  Foligno had 34 points in 82 games, followed by Milan Michalek with 33 points in 66 games, Daniel Alfredsson with 31 points in 54 games, Ryan Shannon with 27 points in 79 games and rookie Bobby Butler, who had 21 points in 36 games.  Remember the time when the Senators were ripe for points among forwards?  Seems like ages ago now, doesn't it?  It was not a banner year for the Senators.

On defense, there was a real bright spot to the season named Erik Karlsson, who took the lead among Senators blueliners and had a decent season.  Karlsson finished with 45 points in 75 games, plus an All-Star nod as well.  He was followed in scoring by Sergei Gonchar, who had 27 points in 67 games and Filip Kuba, who had 16 points in 64 games.  After those three, it gets to be pretty bad for Ottawa defensemen.  I'd hate to imagine where the Senators might have been without a kid like Karlsson though.

Goaltending was definitely a huge issue for the Senators all season, as there wasn't a great deal of faith given to the crease, up until the acquisition of Craig Anderson from Colorado, who somewhat turned the season from absolutely pitiful into one that you might hang your friend's coat on.  Anderson was having a poor season with the Avalanche, but really turned it on with the change of scenery, finishing the season with 53 points, ranking 104th in the pool ranks, 24th among all goalies.  Also showing some good talent upon mid-season arrival was Curtis McElhinney, who finished the season with 23 points, 48th among all goaltenders between Anaheim and Ottawa.  Pascal Leclaire, Robin Lehner and Michael Brodeur all finished the year with the Senators and also saw time in the crease as well.

2012 Pool Outlook
The rebuild process has already started and for the Senators, they have kept themselves some pieces that should keep them somewhat relevant, instead of those teams that completely blow themselves up and start anew. There are some stars on this team, which should keep some hope alive, the optimism will only turn into confidence when these players are healthy for an entire season.

Forwards	Defense	Goalies
Jason Spezza	Erik Karlsson	Craig Anderson
Nick Foligno	Sergei Gonchar	Robin Lehner
Milan Michalek	Filip Kuba
Daniel Alfredsson	Chris Phillips
Peter Regin	Matt Carkner
Chris Neil	Brian Lee
Colin Greening
Jesse Winchester
Zack Smith
Stephane Da Costa

After trading away some bigger assets around the trade deadline, plus a few unrestricted free agents likely heading out to pasture, the Senators are a much more flexible team when it comes to working with the cap for the 2012 season.  The team listed above has 18 players and three buyouts on the books, working at an annual projection of $45.7 million.  Between a few more signings, that should at least get the team above the salary cap floor and remain flexible with more prospects and signings to come.

Restricted free agents will be important for the Senators this season, especially some of their home grown prospects.  The biggest ticket player will be NCAA-grad Bobby Butler, who showed some real promise again in the 2011 campaign, but it was somewhat short.  He'll likely pick up a pretty reasonable deal for a couple years, working on making a full-time effort.  Erik Condra and Roman Wick are likely in the same boat.

The unrestricted free agent list is about the same size, but probably has a few more questions.  Ryan Shannon, Curtis McElhinney, Marek Svatos, Pascal Leclaire and David Hale are all among the players heading to free agency this Summer and I could just as easily see all five go to market, as I can about three of them stay with the team.  I do believe Leclaire is finished with the Senators, quite possibly the NHL as well, unless he can show he has some feeling left in his oft-injured body.

Looking ahead to the coming season, the Senators are awfully high on players like forward Stephane de Costa, defenseman Jared Cowen and goaltender Robin Lehner, all of which may find various roles on the team for the 2012 season.  All three of them had some playing time at various points in the season and I would have to think that all three of them will be guided into their roles somewhat gently, assuming no health disasters befall the team in the season.  I think we'll see a great deal of these three names in the Summer and once training camp hits, so I would have them on my radar for pool drafting.

The Senators will be a tough team to judge at the draft, especially since they have their own pick at 6th overall and the Predators pick at 21st overall in the 1st round.  The Senators are a tough team to predict at the draft regardless and now having two 1st round picks this Summer gives the team plenty of options.  The Senators needs are many, so even a goalie in the 1st round doesn't sound too out of the question, giving a top goalie prospect three or four years to make the leap.  Best player available, trying to boost the offense.

What I said last year at this time... "For 2011, the possible loss of Volchenkov could be pretty big to the team, unless Cowen can pan out and be the physical shutdown defenseman that Phillips can use as a good partner. For scoring, I suspect Alfredsson will be the status quo, Spezza might be able to bounce back, if the Sens can find him a scoring partner beyond Alfie, I have a hard time thinking Kovalev will recover much, Fisher has matured to a point where he'll continue 2010's pace and Regin has gained all sorts of confidence to grow. The Senators should be an alright team in 2011, I'll just take them with a grain of salt at my hockey pool draft this Fall."

Taking the Senators with a grain of salt was a great idea. They may have lost Volchenkov, but replacing him with Sergei Gonchar didn't help them at all. Alfredsson was okay, Spezza tried to bounce back on a lesser team, Kovalev didn't recover, Fisher played well, but was marketed to Nashville and Regin lost whatever confidence he had gained in 2010.  It wasn't a very good season and points for the hockey pool really didn't come out of Ottawa.

For 2012, I think they are a sharp-shooting, pure-goal scoring forward away from getting close to where they were as a high-scoring outfit only a few years ago.  The core of this team should be able to string some wins together, but without a consistent offense, I think they are going to fall short of making the playoffs, but will keep it close on the backs of Karlsson and Anderson, who I believe are the real core of this team now.  It may be wise to hesitate when it comes to the hockey pool about picking Senators, as their track record in the infirmary is a lot longer than I would like and until there is proof that they've found a way to play healthier, this could also be another one of their downfalls.