Pool Outlook for Long Island

The Islanders had a lot of pieces in place for the 2011 season, trying to make that turn into being a playoff-worthy team, but there were a ridiculous amount of injuries that piled onto them, causing great distress through their line-up, but not without some definite plus points throughout the year.  Sure, the lack of Streit, Okposo and DiPietro were early hindrances, but it was only able to open the door for a player like Michael Grabner, who was claimed off waivers and ended up making a good impression on the league.  2011 was a bit of a write-off, but there should still be plenty of hope for 2012.

The 2009 1st overall draft pick has not disappointed the Islanders in the sense that since John Tavares joined the league in the 2010 season, he has finished atop the team's scoring.  Tavares finished with 67 points (29 goals and 38 assists) in 79 games for Long Island, ranking him 44th in pool scoring, up from 99th in 2010.  If the ascension to the top continues (somewhat like Steven Stamkos in Tampa), Tavares could very well be a reasonable 1st round draft pick in next season's hockey pool draft.

The Islanders may not have had the strongest of seasons, but the forwards that they had going for them were actually quite good and put up some numbers that were either helping win some games or build confidence for the future.  Matt Moulson led the rest of the forwards with 53 points in 82 games, while P.A. Parenteau also had 53 points in 81 games, followed by Michael Grabner with 52 points in 76 games, Frans Nielsen with 46 points in 77 games and Josh Bailey with 44 points in 70 games.  The gap sort of gets wider down below, but at least they have plenty to play with in 2012.

The defense was a bit of a mess for the better part of the year, as injuries did take their toll on the blueline, but it wasn't quite as publicized as their goaltending injuries.  Andrew MacDonald led the Islanders defense with 27 points in 60 games, followed by rookie Travis Hamonic with 26 points in 62 games and Jack Hillen with 22 points in 64 games.  The three leaders in 2011 should compliment some of the supposed usual suspects, most of whom should be back with the club for the 2012 season.

The Islanders goaltending was all kinds of interesting, since they used six goalies in the 2011 season, trading one away and then seeing injuries ravage a good number of those in the year.  Al Montoya led all remaining goalies with 21 points in 2011 season and he'll lead the candidates for back-up to Rick DiPietro (or starter, for that matter) in 2012, as DiPietro made strides to a better return, picking up 19 points in the season.  Kevin Poulin, Mikko Koskinen and Nathan Lawson also made appearances with the big club as well.

2012 Pool Outlook
I make no bones about how far I think the Islanders will be able to go with some of the pieces that they already have in place, but a lot of their support players are still fairly bottom-of-the-barrel, so there could still be some growing pains, as the team gets through their rebuild process.

Forwards	Defense	Goalies
John Tavares	Andrew MacDonald	Al Montoya
Matt Moulson	Travis Hamonic	Rick DiPietro
P.A. Parenteau	Milan Jurcina
Michael Grabner	Mark Eaton
Frans Nielsen	Mike Mottau
Matt Martin	Mark Streit
Trent Hunter

The one upside to having some lower-ranked players to help fill out your team is that the team isn't dealing with very many cap issues and the Islanders are definitely in good shape going into the 2012 season.  The 15-player mock up above, plus two buyouts on the books, currently have an annual cap projection of $32.9 million, still well below the 2011 salary cap floor.  In order to reach the cap floor, I think the Islanders may be closing in on a position to pay out some good dough for some of their own free agents and maybe some UFAs as well. Could be a fun Summer on the island.

The restricted free agent list for Garth Snow to deal with this year will be interesting to watch play out.  Blake Comeau, Josh Bailey, Jack Hillen and Kyle Okposo will all present some interesting negotiations, I'm sure.  That's four key pieces that are not in the table above and these four should actually bring that cap number much closer to the cap floor.

On the UFA side, Radek Martinek and Zenon Konopka are the two more interesting free agents to hit the market from the island, but I would imagine both are going to be targets for the team before they hit the market on July 1st.

What's very exciting about the Islanders system is that there is plenty of speed coming up through the ranks, which will add to some very speedy talent already up with the team.  Nino Niederreiter saw nine games with the Islanders in 2011, but was sent back to junior for some seasoning.  I would expect Niederreiter to make the jump in 2012.  Calvin de Haan also went back to junior after camp and he should add a solid puck-moving element to the team, if he can make the jump.  Rhett Rakhshani also comes with a lot of speed and he managed to jump into a couple games in 2011, but his size may still be a concern.

The Islanders have been spending a few top end picks on some quality scoring and with the acquisitions of Moulson and Grabner through other means in the last couple of years, it could be high time that the Islanders use one of their top draft picks, this year picking 5th, on another solid defenseman, possibly someone in the two-way mould.  This could mean some big things for kids like Dougie Hamilton or Duncan Siemens, who are rated very well, have size and play both ways.

What I said last year at this time... "As for 2011... I think their season really depends on how they work around their offseason. Tavares will score more, even without more quality help, so that's definitely a plus. Streit will still be a good scoring defenseman that'll quarterback the power play. DiPietro is still a wild card and would still stay away from him, still with the two good seasons rule of staying away. I'm really hoping they can add de Haan and he'll make a Michael Del Zotto-like impression. There are definitely some pluses in the Islanders future, but I can't see them improving by any more than 10 points next season, if they improve much at all... barring a blockbuster deal, of course."

Tavares did score more... Streit didn't play at all... DiPietro was still very much a wild card... and without knowing de Haan did end up making a Del Zotto-like impression, as neither played a great deal with their big clubs in 2011.  The Islanders did see a number of pluses in their season, despite a lot of injuries, and I think it would be far to suggest that the injuries were the biggest reason why the Islanders didn't improve at all between 2010 and 2011, rather dropped 6 points in the standings.  All in all, I was as right as I could be, I think, especially putting out my prediction before the Summer even started.

In 2012, I think we'll finally see the corner finally be turned for the Islanders.  Tavares will continue to improve, by leaps and bounds; Streit should be healthy enough to resume his career, likely at a recovering pace to his scoring; Okposo, Bailey, Grabner, Moulson and likely Niederreiter will bring some real speed and scoring to it all; but the defense and goaltending as a whole will need a little bit more help over the Summer before they make the playoffs.  Hamonic looks like he'll be a great regular ice-time guy and Calvin de Haan will have to step up and DiPietro will have to stay healthy, period.  I think the playoffs are in sight for the Islanders, but maybe not until 2013.