Pool Outlook for Atlanta

Last year, the Thrashers were the first team I looked at for the Pool Outlooks, but since I switched over to doing it by league standings, they moved up a few days... but they are still out of the playoffs and in the first batch of reports. The Thrashers did all they could to make their superstar happy, especially signing some more Russians to make him feel at home, but by the end of the season, their superstar had left, the team fell out of playoff contention and now some big question marks are lingering over top of a smaller-market club with an identity crisis.

It's very strange having an article about the Thrashers, talking about the team's top scorer at he end of the year and not have it be Ilya Kovalchuk. No, the deal that sent Kovalchuk packing to New Jersey saw to that not happening this year and there's a pretty good chance it won't happen again. Saying that, we now say hello to Nikolai Antropov, who was signed by the Thrashers in the off-season to help stabilize their offense. Now the role for Antropov is much bigger, since he still has three years left on a 4-year deal. Antropov finished the season with 24 goals and 43 assists in 76 games, ranking him 52nd in pool scoring for 2010. Remarkably, that is his highest ranking in the last four seasons and he has been on a steady climb up the rankings in those four seasons. 2011 will definitely be his time to shine.

I would have to say that the collective group of forwards beyond Antropov did underachieve for the most part. There was some high expectations on Bryan Little, Colby Armstrong and Todd White in the off-season and they all failed to really lift their game to where it should have been. On the other hand, Maxim Afinogenov had a pretty good year with 24 goals, Rich Peverley scored 22 and Niclas Bergfors scored 21 between Jersey and Atlanta. If the first three could have put together some 20-goal seasons, the Thrasher would likely be in really good shape and likely be in the playoffs. With Kovalchuk gone, however, it will be interesting to see how the Thrashers rebuild their forward lines.

The defense in Atlanta was it's own interesting tale of astonishment. Tobias Enstrom led the way for all blueliners with 50 points (6 goals & 44 assist) in all 82 games, finally giving the Thrashers that extra bit of improvement that we thought we would have seen last season. Enstrom jumped up to 126th in pool rankings, which is great for the young defender and he'll be one to watch for years to come. Pavel Kubina, Ron Hainsey and Zach Bogosian all had mediocre years for the Thrashers, which was somewhat of a let down, because the blueline was going to be where the team's strength really came from. The Thrashers also had a bit of a carousel ride for the bottom depth defenders and Chris Chelios even came through for 7 games this season.

Goaltending in 2010 fell to an interesting pairing in Johan Hedberg (pictured) and Ondrej Pavelec and they made the most of what they had. Hedberg managed to pick up 21 wins for the Thrashers, having one of his best seasons in a long time, while Pavelec finished with 14 wins, earning him some respect from the management & coaching staff, as they decided to trade away Kari Lehtonen to the Stars. Both goalies really had their A+ moments this season, but they certainly were not consistent throughout the year. It does sound like Pavelec is going to be the number one guy in Atlanta, but that might be because there are very few options past him in their ranks.

2011 Season Outlook
I don't think you'll be hurting anyone's feelings if you keep your expectations really low on the Thrashers. Other than their blueline core, there isn't a lot to build confidence on at the moment. Sure, the Thrashers have some flashy players and some potential in others, but it's not holding a lot of water, in my opinion.

Forwards	Defense	Goalies
Nikolai Antropov	Tobias Enstrom
Rich Peverley	Ron Hainsey
Evander Kane	Zach Bogosian
Todd White	Johnny Oduya
Marty Reasoner	Boris Valabik
Chris Thorburn

On the plus side, the limited amount of players that they have on their current table of signed & ready players for 2011 doesn't cost very much against the cap, which may get them a lot closer to some new faces that will refresh this franchise's identity. The 11 players that I have above only come in at a cap hit of $27.7 million, so the pocketbook should open up come July 1st.

The Thrashers decided to move Don Waddell up to the upper-management positions, while hiring Rick Dudley to take over at the GM position. His job will be very taxing, as the free agent market will be a tough one to buy from and likely keep some of their 2010 players away from. Maxim Afinogenov, Johan Hedberg, Pavel Kubina, Colby Armstrong, Slava Kozlov and Jim Slater are all on the verge of unrestricted free agency and their usefulness will likely be the topic of discussion while these playoffs are underway.

Among their restricted free agents, the Thrashers will have to deal with Niclas Bergfors, Clarke MacArthur, Bryan Little and Ondrej Pavelec. With cap space to burn and a need for quality young players, I don't see any of these four being a real nuissance to re-sign this off-season.

Thanks to the Kovalchuk deal, the Thrashers have two 1st round picks in this Summer's Entry Draft, which is excellent, because they are desperate to fill their youth stables with some blue chip prospects. The Thrashers do have some good prospects in the system, but with the state of the team right now, it's imperitive that they find some superstars and quickly. With Evander Kane jumping right into the Thrashers' fold, he pretty well skipped over this step with the team on my blog. Patrice Cormier, Jeremy Morin and Carl Klingberg are the top three prospects according to the Hockey News, but they don't seem to be confident that any of them will be joining the team soon. Paul Postma and Arturs Kulda are prospects on the Thrashers' blueline, but they are being given plenty of time to develop, with the assets they have already. I don't think it would be considered going out on a limb to think that the Thrashers will use one of their 1st round picks on a goaltender. If I was Dudley, I would use the 8th pick to guarantee getting the best one.

What I said at this time last year: "I really like the team's potential to do some good stuff, barrng that management doesn't muck it up somehow. Kovalchuk, Hainsey, Enstrom and Bogosian are all good picks for next season's hockey pool and they do have a couple of other names waiting in the wings. If the team can get some more scoring depth, numbers can improve. The Thrashers will be a sleeper spot for pool picks, but you better be sure that they wake up in time to get you points before you place all your hopes on them next season."

Being that the Thrashers were my first Pool Outlook last year, I really actually tried to do an outlook on the likelihood of picking players for pool teams, making an effort at least. Well, if you picked the four guys I listed above, you would have been pleased with two and disappointed with the other two, but the Thrashers were a bit of a sleeper pick team, with Antropov and Afinogenov each going over the 60-point mark, while Peverley hit 55 points. They all likely slipped under the radar of your Draft, for a while anyways.

For 2011, I can really see the Thrashers struggling as a whole. Ondrej Pavelec will likely get the bulk of the starts, Zach Bogosian will have a good 3rd season in the NHL, Niclas Bergfors will likely struggle in his sophomore year, Evander Kane will probably stay the course and the Thrashers will be hard-pressed to add a lot to this squad. I really don't believe that the Thrashers will be building to win right away in 2011, they'll just be looking to grow what they already have and gain some valuable experience for some of their younger NHL-ready players.