Saturday, August 07, 2010

Revisiting the Injury Prone List of 2009

Exactly like my post yesterday about my 2008 list, I have looked over the 2009 list of injury prone players that I give a little more consideration to when I put together my projection list for my hockey pool draft.  In a lot of cases, it is good to revisit some of these players and how well they've done since you've last looked at them and the 2009 list is a good example of that.  I think there was a bit more re-adjustment on my list than I thought there might be.  I wonder how my 2010 list will change my mind.

On the 2009 list, abdominal problems and groin problems were my concern after the 2009 season for Daniel Briere, but he managed to pass through the 2010 season missing only seven games, four to a quadriceps injury in his leg and the other three were missed because of a suspension, so he should be close to a full projection, but not quite. I think I am still going to discount his projection by about 12 games, just to stay on the safe side. Briere did prove to be healthy through the playoffs, but players are more likely to play through the pain when there is more on the line.

When you think of injury prone, you do immediately have Marian Gaborik in your top five of current players most likely to suffer a groin injury, don't you? Well, his first season in New York was a good one and he only missed six games, due to various injuries that are not groin injuries. A minor leg knock, a lacerated knee and a minor thigh problem were the three things keeping him out for no more than three games at a time, but I don't think that will keep me from giving him the injury discount. I would feel better discounting him by 15 games and then hope for the best, knowing full well someone else will take him in the 2nd round expecting big things.

It was another horrible season for Fernando Pisani, who has cemented himself on the injury prone list after missing 42 games for a number of different reasons in 2010. He couldn't start the season for a month due to a back injury, ulcerative colitis kept him out of the line-up for another 23 games, November to January, the flu, an undisclosed injury and a small groin knock had him out the remainder. Pisani remains unsigned at the time of this post and since he's a checking winger, he won't have too much value to many teams or fantasy teams.

In 2010, there was nothing wrong with Paul Kariya's hip, which was the concern last Summer, but he did miss some time with a head injury and a game due to a lower-body injury.  Kariya does have a good record for staying healthy, so you should be able to pick him some reasonable confidence, but taking a few games off of his projection likely wouldn't hurt.  Kariya will have to sign somewhere before you start giving him a projection with linemates and such.  The prospect of him playing with Teemu Selanne again in Anaheim is certainly something worth waiting for.

Tim Connolly is a great offensive talent, but he has really seen some hard times on the injured reserve in his career.  Last Summer, I did notice that he had a good consecutive stretch of games before the end of the season, but was going to hesitate on picking him up in the 2010, because I wanted to see a full season out of him.  2010 was a good season for Connolly, by his standards, playing in 73 games, scoring 17 goals and adding 48 assists.  The only time missed in the 2010 season was due to a foot injury that was late in the season, so he has taken a step towards being a regularly healthy body, but he's another guy that needs to be taken with caution.  If you are going to take Connolly, give yourself some ample games away, just so you're not disappointed when it happens in the year.

The inclusion of Paul Stastny on the list was a cautionary decision, because of some games missed over the 2008 and 2009 season.  The 2010 season was good enough to squash those fears with 81 games played in the year and I think we may have been too quick to judge him over here.  His name is on the list, which means I will keep coming back to him year after year, but I think we'll see that now that he has a little more responsibility with his club, he'll have to find some more with his body.

Severe back problems will be enough to keep a close eye on Steve Sullivan for the rest of his career, but in 2010, he really showed that he can be better from a major injury, playing in all 82 games for the first time since 2003.  His scoring didn't get into the 60+ totals, but another solid Summer of conditioning and working on his back might be good enough to get him in better shape and the Predators around him could be a touch better before its all said and done as well.  As well as he did in 2010, he's not on this list to be cleaned of all doubt right away, although he did a good job of wiping away quite a bit of it.  I'm personally going to discount him by a good number of games, as I'm not in a huge rush to pick him up.

The Islanders knew what they had going on with Rick DiPietro going into the 2010 season, which is why they picked up both Dwayne Roloson and Martin Biron in the off-season, giving DiPietro lots of time to figure his body out.  DiPietro has been battling some knee problems, one of the most important parts of a goalie's body, and managed to get a month worth of work, 8 games, 461 minutes of NHL ice, 2 wins, 1 shutout and an assist and possibly some extra hope going into the 2011 season.  The word this week from his camp is that he will be ready for training camp in a month's time and we'll all see how he goes from there. 

I think I was struggling for a name to find last Summer, as Brent Sopel was included on the list, but his elbow was giving him some troubles all of 2009, so he was worthy, as injuries go, to be on the list.  Sopel managed to play in 73 games for the Blackhawks in 2010, dealing with some soreness issues and a small lower-body injury to miss his games in the regular season, but as defensemen for scoring goes, Sopel might not be the right guy for the job, especially since being dealt to the Atlanta Thrashers in this off-season.

Back problems continued to hurt Eric Brewer in the 2010 season, missing 23 games just before Christmas, but he did finish on a strong note, playing the remaining games after the break, got another break for the Olympics and he finished with 59 games played, 8 goals and 7 assists for 15 points, ranking him 117th among defensemen.  That's all pretty good signs for a guy who could be getting stronger, much like Steve Sullivan above him on the list. Brewer is a big guy and a pretty smart hockey player, I may discount him, but not by too much.  I like him to be a bit more of a sleeper this year.

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