The Sports Forecaster Preview & Fantasy Guide

In what has been branded by the Score in the past, the Sports Forecaster 2010-'11 NHL Preview and Fantasy Guide has been one of my favourite reads leading up to drafts, because they do a pretty good job with younger players. The top 500 players and 50 goalies pull-out is also pretty good, but it is in such small print, it doesn't really work well in the dim lighting of the bar, once we're in full draft mode and someone decides to turn on the mood lighting.

It seems strange, this is already the end of August and this is only the second guide I've had a chance to look at. Well, I guess I better get right at it then...

The Forecaster is definitely going out on a limb this season by selecting Alex Ovechkin as the top scorer in the league this season.  Okay, maybe they aren't, but they are suggesting that this is going to be one hell of a race between Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby, both eclipsing the 120-point mark this year.  Ovechkin is listed at 128 points in their forecast, while Crosby is not far behind at 123 points.  As those two will go, as will their partners in crime, with Nicklas Backstrom listed at 107 points and Evgeni Malkin at 97 points.  That is definitely a plausible top four picks in anyone's draft, if you ask me.  Also, in terms of partners in crime, the Sedin twins come in 5th and 6th, Daniel Sedin coming in with 37 goals and Henrik Sedin with 30 goals, both with 96 points each.

I can't say that the top 10 in scoring rounds out with anyone out of the ordinary.  Marian Gaborik might be comfortable enough to finish 7th with 94 points, Steven Stamkos is quickly becoming a favourite with 93 points, Patrick Kane also has 93 points and so does Joe Thornton.  I wouldn't say any of these guys don't deserve to the be there, but it should be a good race for the top 10,

From the goaltending side of things, there are some pretty conservative numbers in their predictions, as if to say parity will reign supreme in 2011.  Ryan Miller is the only 40-game winner on the list and leads all goalies in point projections with 92 points.  That doesn't even crack their top 10 players, but close otherwise.  Roberto Luongo shows a solid 2nd place with 86 points, as does Jaroslav Halak (but with less wins).  Having Halak this high is quite the gamble, I really wonder how many people will bite on that and how well he'll do for them.  Martin Brodeur, Ilya Bryzgalov, Miikka Kiprusoff and Pekka Rinne all have 84 points in their projections, which doesn't surprise me, while Steve Mason rebounds with 82 points.

Some other quick surprises on the goalie list has Thomas Greiss outdueling Antero Niittymaki in San Jose for the number one job, Ondrej Pavelec doing the same to Chris Mason and Johan Hedberg only getting 10 points in New Jersey.  Those are all worth a raise of the eyebrow to me, at the very least.

On defense, it really is hard not to like Mike Green at the top of the chart, especially with the potential top scorer in the league on his team.  Those are going to be some very valuable power play points that top Green off at 79 points in 2011.  Drew Doughty ranks second, no surprise to me, with 66 points and I think that kind of effort will lead him pretty close to a Norris Trophy, if they hold out to be true.  Duncan Keith, Dan Boyle, Lubomir Visnovsky, Shea Weber, Chris Pronger, Mark Streit, Alex Edler and Erik Johnson are all scheduled to hit over 50 points, which looks about right.  I also like inclusions to the 45+ points players like John Carlson in Washington and Keith Yandle in Phoenix.

Finally, a little bit on the rookie class.  The Forecaster does not have a great side-by-side comparison of the rookie class in its publication, they are just sprinkled through the top 500 skaters, so it takes some digging.  Jordan Eberle leads this class again in projections with 52 points in Edmonton, followed by Taylor Hall with 46 points, John Carlson has 45 points, Tyler Ennis in Buffalo has 44 points, Logan Couture in San Jose has 43 points, PK Subban has 43 points, Michael Grabner has 41 points in Florida, as does Tyler Seguin in Boston and Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson has 29 points.  It's an interesting rookie class, I wouldn't mind seeing a bunch in the draft this year.

Again, I'm not sure I would use these guides to the letter, but they do provide good reference to some players and a subtle reminder not to forget others.  Since I am not holding the 28th of September, we still have training camps to assess before making some final projections for the coming season.