Pool Outlook for Detroit

If you didn't think that the Red Wings were at all resilient before the start of this regular season, I bet you thought they were after the 2011 season and the playoffs.  Wow, even with countless injuries to top players, the Red Wings veteran presence was incredible through the season, leading the Central Division by the end of the year and putting together an incredible run.  Unfortunately, in the playoffs, they ran into a pretty good Sharks team and that was pretty much that.  Still, it's still hard to count Detroit out of anything after last year.

It was a very solid year for Henrik Zetterberg in Detroit, finishing atop the team scoring with 80 points (24 goals and 56 assists) in 80 games, ranking 18th in pool scoring, 9th among all forwards.  When many of the injuries fell upon the Red Wings in 2011, Zetterberg kept the wheels in motion, helping to chalk up some key wins and getting the team into the playoffs with a division title.  His consistent scoring was definitely a blessing to his team and the poolies that picked him up for the year.

The remainder of the Red Wings forwards really had a hard time staying healthy in 2011, which really hurt some of the offensive production we've come to expect from this team.  Pavel Datsyuk only had 59 points in 56 games, Johan Franzen had 55 points in 76 games, Dan Cleary had 46 points in 68 games and Todd Bertuzzi had 45 points in 81 games.  It's a different look to these numbers, especially when Bertuzzi was one of the healthier players throughout the season for the team.  Should expect something more in the 2012 season, barring injuries, of course.

The Detroit defense is never going to be disappointing, especially when you have a player like Nicklas Lidstrom helping to lead the way.  The 41-year old captain had a banner year, finishing with 62 points in 82 games, ranking 2nd among all defensemen in scoring in 2011.  He was complimented by the now-retired Brian Rafalski (48 points in 63 games), Niklas Kronwall (37 points in 77 games) and Brad Stuart (20 points in 67 games).  All four defenders finished in the top 100 of defensemen scoring in the year.  That is a solid season, but there are questions abound about how good the Detroit defense will be in 2012.

The Red Wings goaltending was also quite solid in 2011, led by Jimmy Howard, who won 37 games, had 2 shutouts and added an assist for 79 points, good enough for 12th among all goalies in the league.  He had a very good year, kept the Red Wings in a lot of games and also won a bunch of them as well.  He was helped out by Joey MacDonald (12 points), Chris Osgood (10 points) and even Thomas McCollum made an appearance.

2012 Pool Outlook
For a team that prides itself on building from the defense outwards, the Red Wings are surprisingly a tad shallow going into the off-season on the blueline.  With Lidstrom still trying to decide what he'll do, Rafalski already having retired, the Red Wings could very well be using whatever cap space they have left to flood their blueline with top quality talent.  Otherwise, it's pretty safe up front and in net for the time being.

Forwards	Defense	Goalies
Henrik Zetterberg	Niklas Kronwall	Jimmy Howard
Pavel Datsyuk	Brad Stuart
Johan Franzen	Jakub Kindl
Dan Cleary
Todd Bertuzzi
Valtteri Fippula
Tomas Holmstrom
Jiri Hudler
Darren Helm
Justin Abdelkader

Currently, I have the Red Wings with 10 forwards, three defensemen and a goalie in at an annual projection of $40.8 million against the cap for next season, which leaves plenty of space for a couple more forwards, three or four more blueliners and a back-up goalie.  If Lidstrom does decide to come back, he should be back in the neighbourhood of $6 million for the year, so that'll take up a good chunk, but if he doesn't, they should be able to spend that kind of money on a couple good defensemen instead.

Speaking of Lidstrom, he leads the parade to unrestricted free agency this Summer for the Red Wings, followed by Patrick Eaves, Drew Miller, Mike Modano, Jonathan Ericsson, Joey MacDonald, Kris Draper, Ruslan Salei and Chris Osgood.  There are some aged legs in that group and there will be plenty of consideration as to whether or not some more of these players decide to retire, but we should see most of the newly minted UFAs re-sign this Summer.

None of the team's current RFA group played a game in 2011, so their list is pretty much moot.

Ageing players will be a problem in the next year or two, with spots already starting to open up for the youth, so we'll have to take a keen look at what the Red Wings have in system, as there is a good chance that they will be called upon soon.  On defense, Brendan Smith, a 21-year old defender, may get a good chance at a blueline spot this year, likely getting a long look in camp, probably before the team goes out to spend money on someone new.  I would also look for forwards who are a little bit older, Jan Mursak and Cory Emmerton saw time with the big club in 2011 and likely will get good looks in camp again this Fall.  Those would be the three I would look closely at during the off-season.

Looking at the list of top prospects in the Hockey News' Future Watch, there looks to be a dire need to develop some young talent on the blueline.  With the prices of defenders on the free agent market these days, there could be a time when the Red Wings just won't be able to afford any more help, especially with the money they spend on veteran guys.  I think the Red Wings should use their 1st round pick (24th overall) on a two-way defenseman, but another winger could easily be in the cards, especially if that winger fits into the offensive scheme they have in place.

What I said last year at this time... "For 2011, I am going to continue on the limb that I went out on in my Pool Outlook paragraph before the team table of signed players. I don't forsee a good year, as I think the Red Wings will take a little bit longer to shake off the rust and they will probably have some troubles filling some of their depth positions, which have normally been filled in by wily veterans. I do see Nicklas Lidstrom making a return to the game for another season, but his eventual cap hit will be a huge factor in determining the overall fortunes of the team going forward. I'm sure if Ken Holland can weave his way through the mine field of free agency, the Red Wings may make it out of the Summer a little less scathed as I'm saying right now. Again, don't be in a huge rush to pick Red Wings in your draft next year, your best bet is to turn them into bargains instead of gambles."

The Red Wings didn't get off to any slow start and some of the regular stars went on a pretty good tear.  Other Red Wings players were probably better bargains than regular picks, but for the most part, if you were looking to take advantage of Nicklas Lidstrom or Henrik Zetterberg, you were probably pretty wise to.  I don't think I could call last year's prediction a very good result in the end, it really wasn't.  The Red Wings did win the division and put up some decent numbers, so I'm really going to have to step it up for them for the 2012 year.

I don't think I can harp on the defense for the Red Wings too much, because it will be the key to their season in 2012.  I honestly believe that there is a lot riding on the decision of Nicklas Lidstrom's playing days, which will likely dictate a good portion of the team's success going forward.  Yes, Zetterberg, Datsyuk and Howard will win a lot of games between them in the coming year, but some of those close games may come down to the wire more often than not, if Lidstrom doesn't return.  If Lidstrom says yes to returning, the Red Wings will be in good shape for a playoff run, but if he says no, there will be many growing pains working with a new crop of defensemen logging big minutes, barely creeping into the playoffs.