Pool Outlook for Tampa Bay

New management and a new coach did absolute wonders for the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2011 season.  The hiring of Steve Yzerman to take the lead in Tampa was met with a rousing approval from around the league, then hiring Guy Boucher to coach was another solid move in the right direction.  All of these moves gave the Lightning a lot of positive momentum, picking up some key players in the off-season and during the season, leading to an Eastern Conference Finals appearance, where they lost to the Bruins, falling just short of their second trip to the Finals.  Overall, it was a very good year in Tampa.

It was another major impact season for Martin St. Louis, who seems to just get better with age.  The 36-year old forward picked up 31 goals and 68 assists in all 82 games for the Lightning this season.  His 99 points were good enough for 2nd overall in pool scoring, which should immediately make him into a top five pick for next season's hockey pool draft... or so you would think.  In the 2011 draft pool, St. Louis was taken 35th overall, which made him a massive bargain, one that may be overlooked again, but not for quite as long.

Three more forwards finished in the top 100 of scoring up front, as Steven Stamkos also had a monster season with 91 points in all 82 games, followed by Vincent Lecavalier (54 points in 65 games) and Teddy Purcell (51 points in 81 games).  Simon Gagne (40 points in 63 games) and Ryan Malone (38 points in 54 games) both battled injuries in the 2011 season or else they may have been in the mix for more top 100 forwards, both may be pretty good bargain picks in next season's draft.

The Lightning also had three blueliners in the top 100 of defenseman scoring, led by Brett Clark, who finished with 31 points in all 82 games.  Clark was the only defenseman to play in all 82 games for the Lightning, which likely defaulted him the lead.  Victor Hedman finished with 26 points in 79 games, while Pavel Kubina had 23 points in 79 games, rounding out the top three.  All three will likely get some good looks in the 2012 season.

Likely, the most important move made by management in the 2011 season was the acquisition of Dwayne Roloson from the Islanders.  Roloson provided the team with some quality veteran minutes in the crease and was a big reason as to why the Lightning made it to the Conference Finals.  Roloson finished the regular season with 24 wins, 4 shutouts and 2 assists for 58 points, which doesn't speak to the level of play that he gave the team in the late parts of the season.  Also finishing the year in Tampa was Mike Smith, who had 13 wins, 1 shutout and 1 assist for 29 points, good enough for 36th among all goalies.

2012 Pool Outlook
As you can see by the table below, the Lightning have a lot of spots to fill in the off-season, which provides plenty of flexibility in what management will look to achieve in the next couple months.  Without goalies, depth defensemen and a number of forwards, there will be a few jobs up for grabs in 2012, which could make Tampa Bay a very interesting team in more ways than one.

Forwards	Defense	Goalies
Martin St. Louis	Brett Clark
Vincent Lecavalier	Victor Hedman
Ryan Malone	Pavel Kubina
Dominic Moore	Mattias Ohlund
Steve Downie
Nate Thompson
Dana Tyrell

The Lightning currently have seven forwards, four defensemen and two buyouts on their books heading into the frenzied off-season, coming in at an annual projection of about $36.5 million.  The Lightning will have to address Stamkos with a lot of cap space, which could shrink the number down substantially for the remaining 11 players they will need to fill a 23-man roster.  Thankfully for Bolts management, their big ticket players otherwise, are already signed.

Of course, the big ticket player is going to be Steven Stamkos, who leads the restricted free agents into the Summer, followed by Teddy Purcell, Mike Lundin, Blair Jones and Matt Smaby.  Purcell will be a good player to try and lock up, as he was a force in the playoffs for the Lightning as well, which will likely earn him some extra cash on his next deal.

The unrestricted free agents on the list are actually very interesting as well, as the aging goalie Dwayne Roloson leads the way.  The big question will be whether or not he decides to retire this Summer or come back as a 42-year old.  Simon Gagne, Sean Bergenheim, Mike Smith, Adam Hall, Eric Brewer, Randy Jones and Marc-Andre Bergeron are also all headed for unrestricted free agency in July, which is actually a very impressive list of players.  I cannot wait to see who stays and who goes from here.

The Lightning have quite a bit of talent in the system, some of which I believe we'll see in the 2012 year.  Carter Ashton, a big framed forward, almost made it out of camp with the team, but was sent back to junior for some more seasoning.  I like him to give it another good run in September.  James Wright has seen some time with the Lightning already and they really like his size and play, but some inconsistencies have sent him to the minors.  Finally, Cedrick Desjardins may be in line for the back-up job this coming year, pending a new deal, which could make him into a sleeper contender for your pool draft.

To me, I see the Lightning looking for a blue chip defenseman with their 1st round draft pick in the Summer.  The team is short on top level defenders and a lot of teams are already stacked up in that position, so it would be wise for the Lightning to jump on the bandwagon now, before it costs them an arm and a leg to acquire some from another team.  I don't think the Lightning can rest on Hedman for the long-term.

What I said last year at this time... "For 2011... The Lightning have even more to do in terms of filling gaps than they did in 2010, which makes everything a lot harder to predict. New management and coaching will dictate what will happen, so it's going to be tough to do before then. If I was heading into Tampa as the next GM, I would be looking for an offensively-minded coach, so the Bolts could get into some track meets with division rivals like Washington and Carolina. Next, I would make sure that the offensive prospects in the Lightning system have it in their minds that they are going to get a long look at camp this year. Then, going to the Draft, I would look for pure offense, possibly some good two-way players. Get to camp, mash it all together and see if we could build an exciting brand of hockey. That's what I'd do... now where do I send my resume?"

No one told me where I could send my resume for the GM job in Tampa, but I guess the team did alright with who they picked to do the job instead.  With a clean slate, Yzerman did a masterful job filling all of those gaps that the team had going into the 2010 off-season, to which the product on the ice did not suffer one bit, rather improved exponentially.  The Lightning also did make a move for more offense at the draft, taking Brett Connolly with their 1st round pick, so I think I could put that notch in my belt this year.  No one could really see the Lightning winning as much as they did in the off-season at this time, but I'm sure a good number will predict good things in 2012.

For 2012, there are plenty of questions that are up in the air that may hinder a solid prediction for this team going forward.  Here is what we know... Stamkos will re-sign, likely for big money, St. Louis and Lecavalier will still be around to lead, defense will be a concern this Summer, while goaltending will likely hinge on the success of Smith or a new number one goalie.  I like this team to make some noise in the Eastern Conference, but not without some growing pains in the first month or two of the season.  The Lightning play a good defensive system, no matter what players are there, complimenting a deadly power play, so the team should be able to stack up some wins regardless.  If the Lightning are able to acquire a big-minute goalie this year, I would go after him in the pool, because Tampa will win a good number of games.