Pool Outlook for Phoenix

The Phoenix Coyotes took another step in 2011 towards becoming an annual playoff team in the Western Conference, as they really did well over the past 12 months keeping the core group of players together and they kept to the script of Coyotes hockey.  In doing so, the Coyotes finished in the thick of the playoff race, a 6th place finish and an opening round date with the Detroit Red Wings, which didn't go quite as well as planned, but I think there should be enough satisfaction in making it back to the dance for another year.  With a little bit more tinkering, they could really start making noise.  First things first... let's see what they have to tinker with.

The backbone of the Phoenix Coyotes, Ilya Bryzgalov, was as strong as he ever in the 2011 season, backstopping the Coyotes to another great finish in the Western Conference.  Bryzgalov finished with 36 wins and 7 shutouts for 86 points in hockey pool scoring, ranking him 12th in the entire league and 6th among all goalies.  Bryzgalov was one of six goaltenders in the league that finished with more than 4,000 minutes played in the net, all of which earned 34 or more wins in the season.  A big minute goalie should generate lots of points.

The forward group was a little less impressive, as only three forwards finished in the top 100 in positional scoring.  Shane Doan led the way with 60 points in 72 games, while Ray Whitney (57 points in 75 games) and Radim Vrbata (48 points in 79 games) rounded out the top three.  Depth kind of fell out after the top three, but Lauri Korpikoski (40 points in 79 games) and Eric Belanger (40 points in 82 games) really tried their best to support them as much as possible.  Top end scoring will likely be something that will be addressed, but for now, the Coyotes may be a little shallow for talent when the hockey pool draft comes back around.

There were 80 defensemen taken in the 2011 hockey pool draft and likely a few more than needed were drafted from Phoenix.  Only two defensemen finished in the top 80 in blueline scoring, Keith Yandle (59 points in 82 games) finished 3rd and Adrian Aucoin (22 points in 75 games) finished 80th.  Yandle was an absolute beast in 2011 and has received a lot of praise for his efforts, but a little bit more scoring depth would go a long way here.

When your number one goalie gets over 4,000 minutes, there isn't a lot of ice-time left for the back-up.  Jason LaBarbera did pick up 7 wins and 2 shutouts in 882 minutes of play, giving him 18 points on the season, which was good enough for 56th among all goalies, but if Bryzgalov is still around in 2012, LaBarbera will not be a good hockey pool goalie.  Oh yeah, there was also a brief appearance for Matt Climie in Phoenix, but it didn't amount to much.

2012 Pool Outlook
There looks like there is a lot of work to be done in Phoenix and this could be the biggest Summer challenge that Don Maloney has to face as GM of the Coyotes.  On the bright side, he doesn't have to worry too much about his defense, that looks like a pretty good top six down below, especially if Ekman-Larsson can take what he learned in 2011 and improve upon it in 2012.

Forwards	Defense	Goalies
Shane Doan	Adrian Aucoin
Ray Whitney	Michal Rozsival
Lee Stempniak	Derek Morris
Taylor Pyatt	David Schlemko
Martin Hanzal	Rostislav Klesla
Paul Bissonette	Oliver Ekman-Larsson

The cap situation is very good for the Coyotes, especially with a boat load of free agents to have a look at this Summer, I think Phoenix could make some very lucrative offers to some good free agents, most of which being their own.  Currently, I have the Coyotes in with six forwards, six defense and two buyouts in at an annual projection of $28.4 million.  They are well over the halfway mark... to get the projected cap floor, but again, they have some very big names to look after this Summer.

The UFA picture needs to be addressed first, because the biggest names are here and they need to be dealt with.  Ilya Bryzgalov, Radim Vrbata (pictured), Eric Belanger, Vern Fiddler, Jason LaBarbera and Ed Jovanovski are all possibilities for the open market, some more so than others.  Word is that Bryzgalov isn't looking to return to the desert and may not sign again with Phoenix, which would leave the Coyotes in a pretty big hole.  He could potentially be the Summer's biggest prize on July 1st.

Once the UFA situation is decided upon, Keith Yandle, Lauri Korpikoski, Kyle Turris, Mikkel Boedker, Brett MacLean and Viktor Tikhonov will all have to be dealt with as restricted free agents.  Yandle, the biggest priority of the bunch, doesn't have the sort of freedom that Bryzgalov does, but he should be demanding a pretty penny after a wonderful season.

The Coyotes have been tinkering a lot with their youth in the last few years, which has started to appear as more of a pattern of not rushing the kids into the line-up.  A lot of the kids that have finally made it into the line-up have spent more than their fair share in the minors, so I am looking to some of the older prospects to make the jump in for Phoenix next year.  I like the look of Brett MacLean and Viktor Tikhonov finding a regular job up front and possibly a Max Goncharov on the blueline.  I wouldn't be making too many investments in my hockey pool from the youth in Phoenix, but I would keep tabs on some of the 20-somethings going forward.

The Coyotes are in need of a real top-end prospect, someone who is a dynamic scoring forward, a player a team can really hang their hat on.  The Coyotes do have their 1st round pick in the 2011 draft, but it doesn't come until the 20th overall selection, so the likelihood of them stealing one in the bottom-third of the 1st round.  In saying that, I would think that the team would have to try stealing a player like that, they'll have to find some more offense somewhere and the draft is always a good start.

What I said last year at this time... "For 2011, there are going to be a good number of teams that will be looking for the few playoff spots available and in a lot of the Outlooks I've done already, I would have to believe that the Western Conference will get a little bit tighter for 2011, so it will have to take a good bit of management in Phoenix to stay in the top half of the playoff spots, including the Pacific Division title. My best guess would be that the Coyotes figure out a way to sign up all the dynamic players on their free agent list, have a look at some of the names on the market and build another competitive team. I do wonder if teams will look at tape and figure out what Tippett is doing again, bringing the Coyotes back into the tight race of 5,6, 7 and 8 spots in the playoffs."

I really kind of dogged the prediction last year, didn't I?  Well, everything did get a little tighter in the 2011 season and the Coyotes flew somewhat under the radar again to finish 6th in the Western Conference and get into the playoffs, so in part, I did okay with what I had said.  Still wasn't as bold of a statement to be proud of, but at least it was something.

In 2012, we'll see the Coyotes stay the course, remain patient and make sure that they develop all of the pieces they have in place, rookies and veterans alike, into a team that can really start competing against the elite teams when the playoffs roll around.  Of course, patience will certainly be tested with Bryzgalov, he could turn out to be the iceberg that sinks this good ship, with the possibility of bolting to a new team in July.  There is a part of me that says that Phoenix caves and signs the Russian keeper to big money, thus saving their 2012, Yandle gets a big extension and the team is forced to explore some more quality depth player options, remaining competitive next season.  I'm expecting the same numbers out of Doan and Whitney, while expecting improvements out of Turris and Boedker.  Look for them in the bottom half of the playoffs in 2012.