Monday, September 07, 2015

The Projected All Rookie Pool Team

Since the announcement that the extra statistic in this year's pool will be penalty minutes, I did up a post yesterday about the best pool worthy in penalty minutes and it looked like a very decent team. Sure, they'll sit in the penalty box a whole lot, but they are out there to get some points as well.

If you've been a regular around the blog over the past few weeks, I've been briefly reviewing some of the pool magazines out there, trying to give an idea about who's doing what and what magazine might be the better to take to the draft in a few weeks time.

Combining the two elements of mini-games and guide reviews, I thought I would make up an all-rookie team, which combines the four magazines, plus my own numbers, to give an idea of what we might expect in the rookie race this year.  Hell, there is another $60 on the line with this race, so you may want to get yourself in it with one of the better potential rookies and these could be the guys you want to look at.

Forward NHL Avg Proj. Points
Connor McDavid EDM 81
Jack Eichel BUF 59
Nikolaj Ehlers WPG 49.5
Sam Bennett CAL 45.5
Max Domi ARI 44.5
Sam Reinhart BUF 42.5
Artemi Panarin CHI 39.3
Anthony Duclair ARI 35.7
Defense
Mike Reilly MIN 26
Ivan Provorov PHI 25
Shea Theodore ANA 20.5
Noah Hanifin CAR 18.3
Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy + TAM 34.5
Calvin Pickard COL 17

Lots of familiar names from the magazines on this list and I think we're going to see a good chunk of these players get taken at one point or another in the draft.

Are you used to seeing this yet? Well, get used to it, if you're not.

Yes, the odds on favourite for the rookie of the year, Edmonton forward Connor McDavid comes in heads and shoulders above the rest of the list, up at an average of 81 points between the five sources.  There wasn't a magazine that didn't think he was going to run away with it and that will put him into some rarified air this season.

His 2015 Entry Draft competition, Buffalo's Jack Eichel, didn't prove to be much competition in the end, just falling below the 60-point barrier with the averages, but he'll likely get some primo ice-time with the Sabres, so he'll still be fun to watch.

After the top two, it's a bit of a mixed bag, all of which is pretty close to one another.  Assuming that one of the top two fall off the map for one reason or another, there are some likely candidates to take the Calder Trophy, as Nikolaj Ehlers in Winnipeg, Sam Bennett in Calgary, Max Domi or Anthony Duclair in Arizona or Sam Reinhart in Buffalo have all been hyped one way or another.

The wild card on this list, Artemi Panarin, who is coming over from the KHL to the Chicago Blackhawks and is getting some pretty positive projections from some of the publications.  I can't say much about him , but if he has a top-nine job in Chicago, he should get points, right?

Young defensemen have been very rare to break out in their late teens or early 20's, but when the University of Minnesota product, Mike Reilly, signed with the Wild as a college free agent, there were a lot of people taking notice.  Reilly will open the season as a 22-year old, assuming he makes the squad out of camp, and his head start in his development should be a real positive.

Of course, right behind Reilly, is one of those defensive prospects that has been considered the closest one to making the jump from junior to the pro level, right after the draft: Russian prospect, Ivan Provorov.  The Flyers took this silky defender in the 1st round of June's draft and if they move a veteran blueliner out for cap reasons, there will be a spot opened up for him.

A couple more defenders make the list, closer to the 20-point range, as Anaheim's Shea Theodore and Carolina's Noah Hanifin have a pretty good shot at earning a spot on their team's respective roster and doing so, should mean that they are going to be good for some points.  A 20-point defenseman would be pretty good, if you're looking to get one in the latter rounds.

There have been some louder concerns for the number of goalies we'll be taking in the pool this year and if you're not going to be on top of filling your crease in the early rounds of the draft, you might be stuck looking for rookie help in the crease.

Before undergoing vascular surgery, which will cost Andrei Vasilevskiy the first couple months of the season, he was thought to be a pretty good bet to help carry the load in Tampa Bay and help to give Ben Bishop a boost in the net.  If Bishop is taking the number one job, like he should, this injury shouldn't hurt Vasilevskiy's projected numbers too badly, but for me, they have already been adjusted for the injury and it didn't really have an effect on his projection average.

There are a number of teams that may be looking to fill their back-up role with a young rookie and the Colorado Avalanche could be one of those teams.  With only 16 games to his name, Calvin Pickard still has his rookie status into the 2016 season and he has a real chance of beating out Reto Berra for the regular back-up in Colorado and that could translate into pool points.  Playing behind a pretty good minute hog in Semyon Varlamov could deter some pool teams from picking him too early, but he could be decent, if the unforeseen was to happen.

I don't advise taking a team full of rookies at the draft, because the best you're going to do is get your money back... unless that's all you want to do.  I'm sure a bigger prize, like $500 (or more) and your name on the trophy is much more appealing than taking a group of freshmen on your team.

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